In late 2009, the German Federal Statistical Office presented the results of its 12th coordinated population projection for Germany. This model calculation shows the likely developments in population up to the year 2060. It states that Germany has been experiencing a continuous decline in mortality and an increase in life expectancy for the past 130 years or more. The primary contributing factors to this, the report says, have been advances in medical care, hygiene, nutrition and housing, as well as improved working conditions and increased general prosperity. The report contains two hypotheses on the development of life expectancy until 2060. According to the base assumption*, men born in 2060 will have an average life expectancy of 85, while women born in the same year will reach the age of 89.2. This represents an increase of seven to eight years over life expectancy in 2006/2008. Variant 2 of the study, the “high increase” scenario, has life expectancy increasing by as much as nine to eleven years: men would live for 87.7 years on average, while the average woman would reach the grand old age of 91.2.
* Base assumption L1 is based on a combination of short-term trends since 1970 and long-term developments since 1871.
** The L2 variant is based on trends since 1970, with the assumption that medical care will continue to improve and thus that the risk of death at an advanced age will continue to diminish until 2060 along the same lines as it has over the past 35 years.
Saskia Blank of the Ideas 2020 team answered this question.